As global climate concerns intensify alongside China’s pursuit of carbon neutrality, the low-carbon transition of the manufacture industry has become an urgent necessity. As a key driver in the digital era, how FinTech can effectively facilitate this transition has emerged as a critical issue. Therefore, this study selects panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2004 to 2023 to examine the mechanisms through which FinTech influences low-carbon development of manufacture industry. The study shows: (1) FinTech exerts a direct promoting effect on the low-carbon development of the manufacture industry, but this effect is only significant in regions with high levels of FinTech. (2) FinTech indirectly facilitates low-carbon transformation through stimulating green technology innovation and reducing energy intensity. (3) Government environmental attention and human capital exhibit stage-specific moderating roles along the transmission pathway, the former amplifies FinTech’s driving force on technological innovation, whereas the latter accelerates the conversion efficiency of innovation outcomes. Building upon these findings, this study proposes the following targeted policy recommendations: regions with underdeveloped financial infrastructure should promote the integration of FinTech with traditional financial services; green technology innovation should be strengthened through dedicated funds, while energy efficiency should be enhanced via integrated “energy-efficiency loans with digital management systems”; government should build a phased and multi-party collaborative policy system, combining stronger policy guidance at the front end with enhanced cultivation of interdisciplinary talent at the back end, ultimately forming a comprehensive support system. This research elucidates the dual pathways and conditional mechanisms through which FinTech drives low-carbon development in manufacturing, offering strategic insights for aligning technological innovation, financial support, and policy guidance.