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South Asian Research Journal of Biology and Applied Biosciences (SARJBAB)
Volume-7 | Issue-03
Original Research Article
Climatic Variables on the Prediction of Raffia Palm Wine Yield in Ikot Ekpene Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria
Udoh, U. I , Isidore, I. F. , Odeleye, S.
Published : May 27, 2025
DOI : https://doi.org/10.36346/sarjbab.2025.v07i03.003
Abstract
Abstract: This research was aimed to examine Raffia palm wine prediction based on climatic data in Ikot Ekpene Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. The secondary sources of data include meteorological records obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Station, and raffia palm wine yield obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Uyo. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to analyze climate variables and raffia palm wine yield. The result shows that the best ARIMA model for rainfall for Ikot Ekpene was (0, 1, 4) and (1, 1, 1) with AICC values of 9.912292 and 10.02025 and SC values of 10.00659 and 10.16652. The minimum temperatures for Ikot Ekpene were (1,1,1); (1,1,0) and (0,1,1), and the corresponding AICC values of 1.255038, 1.213633 and 1.271621, SC values of 1.397774, 1.308790 and 1.365917. The ARIMA model for raffia palm wine for Ikot Ekpene were (0, 1, 1) and (1, 1, 1) with AICC values of 12.48799 and 12.34525 and SC values of 13.07993 and 12.48799. The model efficiency was checked using the sum of square error (SSE), mean square error (MSE), Mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. The results of the various analyses indicated that the models were adequate and can aid future climatic and raffia palm wine projections. The researchers recommended that appropriate climate forecasting and early warning systems should be made part and parcel of planning and development to increase the yield of raffia palm wine, to improve the local dry gin industry.

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